For Democrats, 2018 is shaping up to be a good election year — especially for those in New York state — with experts predicting better campaign fundraising for Democrats over Republicans.

This is in part due to unsuccessful attempts by Republicans to pass legislation in Congress. But it is also because the Democrats have recruited a lot of “quality candidates,” said Richard Bensel, Cornell University’s Gary S. Davis professor of government.

Quality candidates are people who have served in political office before, have run campaigns before or otherwise have political experience, Bensel added.

“When (Democrats) recruit these quality candidates, they almost by definition bring with them contacts for potential donors,” Bensel said. This connection to fundraising will benefit Democrats moving forward as next year’s election looms closer.

Many New York politicians will be up for re-election in 2018, including Rep. John Katko, (R-Syracuse), Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) and Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-N.Y.). Here is a closer look at how they are financing their campaigns and what potential challenges they may be facing in the 2018 election.

U.S. Representative for New York’s 24th District race

Next year Rep. John Katko (R-Syracuse) is hoping to secure his third term serving the 24th district of New York state in the United States House of Representatives. New York’s 24th district includes all of Onondaga, Cayuga and Wayne counties and the western part of Oswego County.

The Republican was first elected to office in 2014, when he beat out Democrat and then-incumbent Dan Maffei by about 19 percentage points. In 2016, Katko was re-elected for a second term, securing about 60 percent of the vote to defeat Democratic opponent Colleen Deacon.

Jim Battista, a political science professor at the University at Buffalo, said because Katko did not win his last two elections by very wide margins, 2018 is going to be a challenging year for the Republican.

“I expect there are people in Virginia who had won their last election 60/40 and they’re out of a job now,” Battista said.

One year out from the 2018 congressional election, Katko has already raised roughly $891,000, according to campaign finance disclosures from the Federal Election Commission. Including leftover money from the previous election cycle, Katko has about $913,000 to spend for his re-election campaign.

Katko is more than $200,000 ahead in fundraising totals than the average House member, according to OpenSecrets.org. Much of this is due to the support Katko has received from political action committees. In the 2018 election cycle, Katko has received about 56 percent of his total funds from PACs. That’s just under $503,000.

Anna Henderson | Contributing Digital Designer

As an incumbent, Katko has received a significant amount of support from leadership PACs. The Majority Committee PAC, which is affiliated with Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), and the Support to Ensure Victory Everywhere PAC, which is affiliated with Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio), have both already contributed the maximum $10,000 to Katko’s campaign.

“Being popular among leadership PACs would generally mean he’s somebody that the larger Republican establishment wants to keep and knows they have to work to keep,” Battista said.

Aside from PACs, the rest of Katko’s campaign funds have come from both large and small individual contributions. Just under $350,000 of his funds are from large individual contributions of more than $200 each, records show.

In his first election campaign, Katko raised just over $1 million — about 37 percent of former congressman Maffei’s total. When Katko campaigned against Deacon in 2016, his fundraising more than doubled to about $2.7 million.

Three Democrats are also vying for Katko’s spot in the House of Representatives: Anne Messenger, founder of the Near Westside Initiative in Syracuse; Dana Balter, a visiting assistant teaching professor at Syracuse University; and Phil LaTessa, a former Syracuse city auditor. Messenger has raised almost $58,000, mostly from large individual contributions, as of Nov. 11. Balter’s campaign has received under $14,000 — also mostly from large individual contributions. There is currently no campaign finance information for LaTessa, according to OpenSecrets.

New York gubernatorial race

Democrat Andrew Cuomo is campaigning to renew his tenure as governor of New York state, a position he has held since 2011. If elected next year, Cuomo would start his third term as governor.

So far this year, Cuomo has received about $9.4 million in campaign contributions, according to the New York State Board of Elections. This total is relatively on par with the years leading up to his last two gubernatorial elections — 2013 and 2009 — when he received just under $10.2 million and roughly $8.1 million, respectively.

Of Cuomo’s $9.4 million contribution total for 2017, about 83 percent of the money has come from New York state.

According to the most recent financial disclosures from July, Cuomo received more than $5.1 million that month, bringing his total cash on hand to almost $25.7 million.

Similar to Gillibrand, Cuomo has a fully stocked war chest, although Battista said Cuomo’s political ambitions “have always been a little bit more clear.”

Cuomo’s potential interest in pursuing a run for president can be seen in how he acts as governor, Battista said. During his tenure, Battista said Cuomo has paid more attention to central and western New York than past governors. He added that Cuomo is also able to work with Republicans in the state, which makes him appear more pragmatic.

“It certainly looks like he’s at least going to put his toe in the water,” Battista said.

U.S. Senator for New York race

Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand is up for re-election to defend her Senate spot, which she has held since 2009. If she wins in November 2018, Gillibrand would start her second full term as U.S. Senator of New York. Experts say she is a “shoo-in” for re-election.

So far in her campaign, Gillibrand has received just over $12.4 million. About 61 percent of her total funds — more than $7.5 million — have come from large individual donations. About $3.8 million was also given to Gillibrand as small individual contributions, each of $200 or less. About $1 million was raised through PACs.

A majority of the people donating to Gillibrand’s campaign are lawyers and affiliates of law firms. Collectively, the law industry has given Gillibrand just under $2 million, according to OpenSecrets.

The source of Gillibrand’s funds is almost evenly split between in-state and out-of-state, with about 58 percent coming from New York and the rest from other states, according to OpenSecrets. Californians have also given significantly to Gillibrand’s campaign, bringing the state’s donation total to roughly $1.6 million.

The incumbent has raised approximately five times more than the average senator running for re-election in 2018. The average funding totals for these senators is about $1.9 million, according to OpenSecrets. In 2012, when Gillibrand ran for re-election the first time, she received more than $15.4 million in campaign contributions, which was also far above that year’s average fundraising total of $3.1 million.

Experts say there are a couple of reasons Gillibrand has fundraised so much money, despite not having a difficult race next year. The first is she may have her sights on higher political offices in Washington, D.C., although she denied a run for president last May, according to The Hill.

“Another reason why we think people do so much fundraising would be to suppress high quality challengers,” Battista said.

Fundraising large amounts of money sends signals to potential challengers in an election, Battista said. Since politicians generally hate fundraising, he said Gillibrand’s large amount of campaign funds shows that she is a “tough, vicious campaigner.” Battista added that it might make someone think twice about challenging her.

Gillibrand is spending her high fundraising totals mostly on strategy and research. Anne Lewis Strategies, a Washington, D.C.-based fundraising and advertising firm, received almost all of the just under $1.8 million Gillibrand’s campaign spent on strategy and research, records show. The next highest amount Gillibrand’s campaign spent was on fundraising at about $540,000.

Anna Henderson | Contributing Digital Designer

Two Republicans — David Webber, an SU alumnus, and Rafael Jones, a business owner from the New York City area — are in the running against Gillibrand. As of Nov. 13, Webber had only raised $6,850 and all but $350 of that total came from a loan he gave to himself. There is no campaign finance information for Jones, according to OpenSecrets.

Published on November 14, 2017 at 11:34 pm

Contact Sara: smswann@syr.edu | @saramswann