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The Tar Heels and the Orange ran into their first bumps of the season at the same time. North Carolina let Ohio State rattle off five goals in the fourth quarter to defeat it 8-5. Syracuse couldn’t stop a final 3-0 run from the Terrapins to put away the game. 

Now, both teams look to rebound in their first conference matchups of the year in the JMA Wireless Dome. Syracuse is trying to come back with a win after getting blanked late in the game against Maryland in a game that it won just 22% of its faceoffs. 

Before the Orange take on the Tar Heels on Saturday, here’s what our beat writers think will happen:

Anish Vasudevan (4-0)
The disappearance of Chris Gray
Syracuse 16, North Carolina 13

I think SU will have the upper hand on Saturday. Last year, a slow start was killer for the Orange against the Tar Heels, even though a five-goal fourth quarter almost sent the game into overtime. Syracuse started slow against the Terrapins, but it should get off to a hot start at home if Johnny Richiusa and the faceoff unit can get some crucial wins. 

More importantly, Chris Gray, the premier UNC attack who scored 14 points in two years against SU, is gone. And the two top contributors behind him, Nicky Solomon and Jacob Kelly, followed Tucker Dordevic to Georgetown. The Tar Heels have Bryant transfer Logan McGovern at the helm of its offense, but he’s not remotely as scary as Gray, Solomon or Kelly. 

Collin Krieg is still in goal for UNC with a 67.3% save percentage this season. He’ll stop some of the toughest shots from Joey Spallina, Jackson Birtwistle and Owen Hiltz. The Orange will have to string together some passes near the crease to get some open looks, meaning Alex Simmons will be even more vital as a distributor in this matchup. Spallina could also make some crucial passes from the X, a skill he’s kept hidden for the last four games. 

Connor Smith (4-0)
First to 10 wins 
Syracuse 10, North Carolina 7

North Carolina has one of the best defenses in college lacrosse, ranking first in defensive efficiency, per Lacrosse Reference. The Tar Heels’ defense has shut down everyone they’ve gone up against, including then-No. 6 Ohio State last Saturday, and Krieg has the Atlantic Coast Conference’s top save percentage and goals against average. In short, Syracuse’s young, inexperienced attack is going to have a tough time scoring against UNC.

The good news for the Orange, though, is that goalie Will Mark has also gotten off to a great start this season, ranking second behind Krieg in GAA and first in saves per game. Mark gave up double-digit goals for the first time all season against Maryland, but his season-high 18 saves kept SU in it until the ultimate three-goal road loss. 

So if these two teams’ first three games of the season are any indication of how this one will go, goals will be at a premium. UNC lost its top scorer from last season, Gray, who dominated the Orange for five goals in the Tar Heels win in the Dome last spring, and the Orange are still finding out where they’re consistently going to get goals from. Yet, I still expect Spallina, Finn Thomson and Hiltz to do just enough, and for Syracuse to pick up its first ranked win in two years. 

Anthony Alandt (2-2) 
Tarred and feathered
North Carolina 15, Syracuse 10

Nothing like taking on your first big-time opponent of the season to follow up a 3-0 start and handing in a dud of a fourth quarter. The Orange proved that while they have the talent to compete with some of the best teams in college lacrosse, they really aren’t there yet. An abysmal faceoff performance from Johnny Richuisa showed that as well. But Syracuse needed to figure out how to counter each run from Maryland, and just didn’t have the ability to.

North Carolina isn’t any easier, especially after a valiant 2-1 start, including an 11-7 win over Johns Hopkins and a close loss to Ohio State. Faceoff specialist Andrew Tyeryar is winning this season at a 63.2% rate, and the Tar Heels have, as Connor mentioned, one of the best defensive units in the country. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Orange held to less than 10 goals as their offensive weapons, like Spallina, are relegated to few, unsuccessful shots on goal.

Published on February 22, 2023 at 9:12 pm