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The college basketball postseason has arrived. The final week before the NCAA Tournament reveal on Selection Sunday will feature shuffling in and around the final spots of the at-large bids. 

Syracuse plays North Carolina State in the second round of the ACC Tournament on Wednesday at 12 p.m. A loss would all but eliminate the Orange from NCAA Tournament contention. A win means the Orange advance to play Virginia on Thursday at noon. Two wins would likely move SU into the field, but if SU finishes 1-1 in Greensboro, it’ll remain on the bubble.

Here’s the Orange’s current resume:

Syracuse: (15-8) NET: 49; KenPom 51; 1-6 Quad 1; 4-1 Quad 2,; 7-1 Quad 3; 3-0 Quad 4 

Current BracketMatrix projection: First Four Out

CBS’ Jerry Palm: First Four Out

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi: First Four Out

Bart Torvik’s projection model currently has the Orange at 24.9% to make the NCAA Tournament, as one of the last four teams in the field. A loss to NC State would drop them out of the field, while a win followed by a loss to Virginia would leave them at 28.8% and in the projected field. 

While SU is playing in Greensboro, there are a handful of other teams competing with them for the last few NCAA Tournament spots.

Here are the tournaments and teams to watch for Syracuse’s bubble chances this week:

The Mountain West Tournament 

San Diego State is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, regardless of what happens to the Aztecs in the MWC Tournament. Syracuse fans will want to hope the Aztecs become the automatic qualifier from the conference and try to limit the total number of bids that the mid-major conference receives.

Boise State, Utah State and Colorado State are all on the bubble, with most experts selecting CSU as the most likely to currently make the tournament.

Here’s a look at the resumes of the three Mountain West bubble teams:

Colorado State: (17-5) NET: 50, KenPom 61, 2-3 Quad 1, 1-2 Quad 2, 3-0 Quad 3, 10-0 Quad 4 

Current BracketMatrix projection: Last Four In

CBS’ Jerry Palm: Last Four Byes

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi: Last Four In

Boise State: (18-7) NET: 43, KenPom 57, 2-4 Quad 1, 2-2 Quad 2, 4-0 Quad 3, 9-1 Quad 4

Current BracketMatrix projection: Last Four In

Palm: Last Four In

Lunardi: Last Four In

Utah State (18-7) NET: 48, KenPom 45, 2-4 Quad 1, 1-1 Quad 2, 6-2 Quad 3, 8-0 Quad 4

Current BracketMatrix projection: First Four Out

Palm: First Four Out

Lunardi: First Four Out

Colorado State and Utah State could meet in the semifinals, while Boise State and SDSU could also meet in the other semifinal. If any of the three bubble teams lost before that, they’d probably be knocked off the bubble. If the top seeds all meet in the semifinals, the Orange should root for CSU and SDSU to meet in the finals, which could hurt Utah State’s chances at an at-large bid. 

The relevant games for Syracuse begin on Thursday, when the quarterfinals begin at 3 p.m. ET.

The Big East Tournament

For many years, Syracuse fans have turned on the Big East Tournament for some of the Orange’s highest profile games of the season. This year, the Big East will be a key factor in whether the Orange make the NCAA Tournament or not. 

Like the Mountain West, the Big East begins on Wednesday. Syracuse will want one of three teams — Villanova, Creighton or Connecticut — to receive the automatic qualifier because all three are NCAA Tournament locks.

The league features three bubble teams, all with a chance to improve their NCAA Tournament resume.

Here’s a look at the resumes of the three Big East bubble teams:

Xavier: (13-7) NET: 57, KenPom 59, 1-2 Quad 1, 5-5 Quad 2, 4-0 Quad 3, 3-0 Quad 4 

Current BracketMatrix projection: Last Four In

Palm: Last Four In

Lunardi: Last Four In

Seton Hall: (13-12) NET: 58, KenPom 53, 3-7 Quad 1, 3-4 Quad 2, 5-1 Quad 3, 2-0 Quad 4

Current BracketMatrix projection: Next Four Out

Palm: Not listed

Lunardi: First Four Out

St. John’s (16-10) NET: 68, KenPom 63, 2-6 Quad 1, 4-2 Quad 2, 5-1 Quad 3, 5-1 Quad 4

Current BracketMatrix projection: ninth team off the final Tournament spot 

Palm: On the bubble, but out

Lunardi: Next Four Out

A quick look at the bracket shows the one game every Syracuse fan should have circled. Seton Hall will play St. John’s again on Thursday at 3 p.m. St. John’s just beat them on Saturday, and another win would likely knock Seton Hall out of the NCAA Tournament field.

But Villanova is now depleted as the top seed without star point guard Collin Gillespie. If the Red Storm won multiple games in a row, they could steal the automatic bid in the final or have enough of a resume to get an at-large with wins against Seton Hall and Villanova. 

Syracuse should hope that Villanova prevails to the final on that half of the bracket. 

On the other side, a Xavier loss to Butler on Wednesday would end the Musketeers season. Syracuse should hope that Creighton beats Xavier in the quarterfinals — a Quad 1 win over the Blue Jays would probably secure a NCAA Tournament bid for Xavier.

The American Tournament

Wichita State won the AAC regular season title over Houston, even though Houston is a projected top-3 seed and the Shockers are on the bubble. The Orange will be rooting for the Cougars to win all three games in this tournament, knocking Memphis off the bubble in the process. If Houston were to lose, though, the door would be open for a bid steal. 

The league features three bubble teams in Wichita State, Memphis and SMU.

Here’s a look at the resumés of the three American bubble teams:

Wichita State: (13-4) NET: 65, KenPom 72, 2-3 Quad 1, 2-1 Quad 2, 6-0 Quad 3, 3-0 Quad 4 

Current BracketMatrix projection: Last Four Byes

Palm: Nine seed

Lunardi: 12 seed (if not Automatic Qualifier)

Memphis: (15-7) NET: 52, KenPom 40, 0-3 Quad 1, 4-3 Quad 2, 5-1 Quad 3, 6-0 Quad 4

Current BracketMatrix projection: Next Four Out 

Palm: On the bubble, but out

Lunardi: Next Four Out

SMU (11-4) NET: 56, KenPom 54, 0-3 Quad 1, 4-0 Quad 2, 4-1 Quad 3, 3-0 Quad 4

Current BracketMatrix projection: Next Four Out

Palm: On the bubble, but out

Lunardi: Next Four Out

Memphis and SMU need quality wins to have a chance to jump teams, and potential wins against UCF and Cincinnati are unlikely to be enough for the two to leap into the NCAA field. 

However, if Memphis were to upset Houston, or SMU were to beat Wichita State, both could jump ahead of the Orange on the bubble. Wichita State vs. SMU in the semifinals could become a de facto play-in game for the NCAA Tournament given both teams’ current positioning on the bubble. The drama begins with the AAC quarterfinals on Friday, and that championship isn’t decided until an hour before Sunday’s selection show.

The remaining bubble teams in action

Mississippi will play against South Carolina in the second round of the SEC Tournament on Thursday at 8 p.m. The Rebels must win that game to have an at-large chance, but they’ll likely also need to beat LSU in the quarterfinal on Friday if they want to be in. Two wins could help them leapfrog over SU because it would be their fourth Quad 1 win. 

Here’s their resume:

Ole Miss: (15-10) NET: 53, KenPom 50, 3-4 Quad 1, 5-4 Quad 2, 2-2 Quad 3, 5-0 Quad 4 

Current BracketMatrix projection: First Four Out

Palm: First Four Out

Lunardi: Next Four Out

VCU will play against St. Bonaventure in the Atlantic-10 Tournament final on Sunday. VCU is top-35 in NET, in Lunardi’s Last Four Byes, Palm’s Last Four In and could slip closer to trouble with a loss to the Bonnies. However, a potential upcoming Quad 1 loss is unlikely to knock them out of the tournament field.

Sitting and waiting

Drake and Saint Louis both lost in their conference tournaments and have no games remaining. Drake fell to Loyola Chicago in the Missouri Valley final on Sunday, while Saint Louis lost to St. Bonaventure in the Atlantic-10 semifinal on Saturday.

Here are their resumes:

Drake: (23-4) NET: 47, KenPom 56, 1-2 Quad 1, 5-0 Quad 2, 6-2 Quad 3, 11-0 Quad 4 

Current BracketMatrix projection: Last Four Byes

Palm: Last Four In

Lunardi: Last Four In

Saint Louis: (14-6) NET: 44, KenPom 49, 2-2 Quad 1, 2-2 Quad 2, 4-2 Quad 3, 6-0 Quad 4

Current BracketMatrix projection: First Four Out

Palm: First Team Out

Lunardi: First Four Out

Published on March 9, 2021 at 1:12 am

Contact Anthony: amdabbun@syr.edu | @AnthonyDabbundo